Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Prognosticating Oscar

To the under informed, that title likely sounds like an invasive, thoroughly unpleasant surgical procedure.  Either that, or the title of a gay porn film.  In fact, it is neither, as those with a slightly larger than average vocabulary will know (see all the extra effort I go to for you, I don’t even make you look it up yourself).

There are really only three Unwritten Laws of blogging.  You must conclude the year with some form of Top Ten list, you must give your predictions for an awards show, and you must spew obnoxious and uninformed opinions whenever possible.  I took care of the first one a little over a month ago, and, of course, I expel my opinions constantly.  So now I will fulfill the final law by presenting my predictions for the 2008 Oscar Awards.

I’ve listed the nominees in each category, with my prediction for the winner in red.  In those categories where I think a film deserves to win, but will instead lose to another, the film that deserves to win is marked in blue.

So now, without further ado, my predictions:

- NOMINATIONS BY CATEGORY - 81ST AWARDS -

Performance by an actor in a leading role

Richard Jenkins in "The Visitor" (Overture Films)

Frank Langella in "Frost/Nixon" (Universal)

Sean Penn in "Milk" (Focus Features)

Brad Pitt in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler" (Fox Searchlight)

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Josh Brolin in "Milk" (Focus Features)

Robert Downey Jr. in "Tropic Thunder" (DreamWorks, Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)

Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Doubt" (Miramax)

Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)

Michael Shannon in "Revolutionary Road" (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Anne Hathaway in "Rachel Getting Married" (Sony Pictures Classics)

Angelina Jolie in "Changeling" (Universal)

Melissa Leo in "Frozen River" (Sony Pictures Classics)

Meryl Streep in "Doubt" (Miramax)

Kate Winslet in "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company)

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Amy Adams in "Doubt" (Miramax)

Penélope Cruz in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" (The Weinstein Company)

Viola Davis in "Doubt" (Miramax)

Taraji P. Henson in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

Marisa Tomei in "The Wrestler" (Fox Searchlight)

Best animated feature film of the year

"Bolt" (Walt Disney)

Chris Williams and Byron Howard

"Kung Fu Panda" (DreamWorks Animation, Distributed by Paramount)

John Stevenson and Mark Osborne·

"WALL-E" (Walt Disney)

Andrew Stanton

Achievement in art direction

"Changeling" (Universal)

Art Direction: James J. Murakami
Set Decoration: Gary Fettis

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt
Set Decoration: Victor J. Zolfo

"The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)

Art Direction: Nathan Crowley
Set Decoration: Peter Lando

"The Duchess" (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films)

Art Direction: Michael Carlin
Set Decoration: Rebecca Alleway

"Revolutionary Road" (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

Art Direction: Kristi Zea
Set Decoration: Debra Schutt

Achievement in cinematography

"Changeling" (Universal)

Tom Stern

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

Claudio Miranda

"The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)

Wally Pfister

"The Reader" (The Weinstein Company)

Chris Menges and Roger Deakins

"Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

Anthony Dod Mantle

Achievement in costume design

"Australia" (20th Century Fox)

Catherine Martin

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

Jacqueline West

"The Duchess" (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films)

Michael O'Connor

"Milk" (Focus Features)

Danny Glicker

"Revolutionary Road" (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

Albert Wolsky

Achievement in directing

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

David Fincher

"Frost/Nixon" (Universal)

Ron Howard

"Milk" (Focus Features)

Gus Van Sant

"The Reader" (The Weinstein Company)

Stephen Daldry

"Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

Danny Boyle

Best documentary feature

"The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)" (Cinema Guild)
A Pandinlao Films Production

Ellen Kuras and Thavisouk Phrasavath

"Encounters at the End of the World" (THINKFilm and Image Entertainment)
A Creative Differences Production

Werner Herzog and Henry Kaiser

"The Garden"
A Black Valley Films Production

Scott Hamilton Kennedy

"Man on Wire" (Magnolia Pictures)
A Wall to Wall Production

James Marsh and Simon Chinn

"Trouble the Water" (Zeitgeist Films)
An Elsewhere Films Production

Tia Lessin and Carl Deal

Best documentary short subject

"The Conscience of Nhem En"
A Farallon Films Production

Steven Okazaki

"The Final Inch"
A Vermilion Films Production

Irene Taylor Brodsky and Tom Grant

"Smile Pinki"
A Principe Production

Megan Mylan

"The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306"
A Rock Paper Scissors Production

Adam Pertofsky and Margaret Hyde

Achievement in film editing

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall

"The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)

Lee Smith

"Frost/Nixon" (Universal)

Mike Hill and Dan Hanley

"Milk" (Focus Features)

Elliot Graham

"Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

Chris Dickens

Best foreign language film of the year

"The Baader Meinhof Complex" A Constantin Film Production - Germany

"The Class" (Sony Pictures Classics) A Haut et Court Production - France

"Departures" (Regent Releasing) A Departures Film Partners Production - Japan

"Revanche" (Janus Films) A Prisma Film/Fernseh Production - Austria

"Waltz with Bashir" (Sony Pictures Classics) A Bridgit Folman Film Gang Production - Israel

Achievement in makeup

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

Greg Cannom

"The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)

John Caglione, Jr. and Conor O'Sullivan

"Hellboy II: The Golden Army" (Universal)

Mike Elizalde and Thom Floutz

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

Alexandre Desplat

"Defiance" (Paramount Vantage)

James Newton Howard

"Milk" (Focus Features)

Danny Elfman

"Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

A.R. Rahman

"WALL-E" (Walt Disney)

Thomas Newman

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

"Down to Earth" from "WALL-E" (Walt Disney)

Music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman
Lyric by Peter Gabriel

"Jai Ho" from "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

Music by A.R. Rahman
Lyric by Gulzar

"O Saya" from "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

Music and Lyric by A.R. Rahman and Maya Arulpragasam

Best motion picture of the year

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
A Kennedy/Marshall Production

Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall and Ceán Chaffin, Producers

"Frost/Nixon" (Universal)
A Universal Pictures, Imagine Entertainment and Working Title Production

Brian Grazer, Ron Howard and Eric Fellner, Producers

"Milk" (Focus Features)
A Groundswell and Jinks/Cohen Company Production

Dan Jinks and Bruce Cohen, Producers

"The Reader" (The Weinstein Company)
A Mirage Enterprises and Neunte Babelsberg Film GmbH Production

Nominees to be determined

"Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)
A Celador Films Production

Christian Colson, Producer

Best animated short film

"La Maison en Petits Cubes"
A Robot Communications Production

Kunio Kato

"Lavatory - Lovestory"
A Melnitsa Animation Studio and CTB Film Company Production

Konstantin Bronzit

"Oktapodi" (Talantis Films)
A Gobelins, L'école de l'image Production

Emud Mokhberi and Thierry Marchand

"Presto" (Walt Disney)
A Pixar Animation Studios Production

Doug Sweetland

"This Way Up"
A Nexus Production

Alan Smith and Adam Foulkes

Best live action short film

"Auf der Strecke (On the Line)" (Hamburg Shortfilmagency)
An Academy of Media Arts Cologne Production

Reto Caffi

"Manon on the Asphalt" (La Luna Productions)
A La Luna Production

Elizabeth Marre and Olivier Pont

"New Boy" (Network Ireland Television)
A Zanzibar Films Production

Steph Green and Tamara Anghie

"The Pig"
An M & M Production

Tivi Magnusson and Dorte Høgh

"Spielzeugland (Toyland)"
A Mephisto Film Production

Jochen Alexander Freydank

Achievement in sound editing

"The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)

Richard King

"Iron Man" (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment)

Frank Eulner and Christopher Boyes

"Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

Tom Sayers

"WALL-E" (Walt Disney)

Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood

"Wanted" (Universal)

Wylie Stateman

Achievement in sound mixing

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Mark Weingarten

"The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)

Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo and Ed Novick

"Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke and Resul Pookutty

"WALL-E" (Walt Disney)

Tom Myers, Michael Semanick and Ben Burtt

"Wanted" (Universal)

Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño and Petr Forejt

Achievement in visual effects

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron

"The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)

Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber and Paul Franklin

"Iron Man" (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment)

John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick and Shane Mahan

Adapted screenplay

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

Screenplay by Eric Roth
Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord

"Doubt" (Miramax)

Written by John Patrick Shanley

"Frost/Nixon" (Universal)

Screenplay by Peter Morgan

"The Reader" (The Weinstein Company)

Screenplay by David Hare

"Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy

Original screenplay

"Frozen River" (Sony Pictures Classics)

Written by Courtney Hunt

"Happy-Go-Lucky" (Miramax)

Written by Mike Leigh

"In Bruges" (Focus Features)

Written by Martin McDonagh

"Milk" (Focus Features)

Written by Dustin Lance Black

"WALL-E" (Walt Disney)

Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon
Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter

So, there you have it.  The Oscars air February 22, at 8 ET/5 PT on ABC.  Be sure to tune in and see how it all turns out.

Sleep Well,

DTE

____________________

Songs of the Moment:

Metric – Help, I’m Alive; The Decemberists – 16 Military Wives; Dandy Warhols – We Used To Be Friends

Music while I wrote:

Stephen Schwartz – Wicked soundtrack

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